Enhancing Anticipatory Action Through Impact-Based Forecasting

In partnership with National Red Cross, Red Crescent Societies and other partners, 510 has co-developed the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) Portal – a digital one-stop-shop of information supporting disaster managers in decision-making. The IBF Portal collects forecasting information from meteorological offices or organisations, and translates them  into anticipated hazard impacts. This information is displayed in an interactive dashboard ahead of time, enabling National Society (NS) to carry out pre-agreed early actions. To date, the portal has been implemented in 8 countries, including Uganda, Malawi and the Philippines. It covers riverine floods, flash floods, drought, typhoons and epidemics.

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are rising and are expected to continue increasing. These events often result in fatalities, mass displacement, food shortages, disease outbreaks, and the loss of livelihoods. According to the World Bank, improving early warning systems and response capabilities could save about 23,000 lives and reduce financial loss between $300 million and $2 billion each year.

Acting before a hazard turns into a crisis saves lives, protects livelihoods, and reduces human suffering. Anticipatory action is not only faster but also more effective, offering support in advance and minimising disaster impact. For example, evacuating people before a flood occurs prevents the need for emergency rescue and significantly reduces mortality risks. Implementing anticipatory actions also reduces pressure on emergency response systems and improves their effectiveness, even when a predicted crisis doesn’t fully materialize.

This is where the IBF Portal comes in. It addresses the following needs in disaster management, working towards this goal: 

• Timely decision-making: It provides real-time information on potential hazard impacts, enabling disaster managers in Red Cross Red Crescent (RCRC) National Societies and other stakeholders (e.g. the government) to assess situations quickly and act promptly.
  
• Risk reduction and preparedness: By displaying forecasts of hazard impacts, the portal helps managers implement pre-agreed early actions, minimizing risk and reducing the impact on communities.
  
• Coordination and collaboration: It facilitates coordination among stakeholders like government agencies, NGOs, and international organizations, ensuring consistent and up-to-date information access for all parties involved.
  
• Data-driven decision-making: Combining data and analytics to generate forecasts and impact assessments, the portal supports evidence-based decision-making, leading to more effective disaster response.

The IBF Portal combines meteorological forecasts from global or local meteorological agencies and technologies with exposure data (e.g. hospitals, schools) to provide information on potential hazard impact. It supports disaster management and anticipatory action. The platform is built through insights from over 160 co-design sessions with disaster managers and operational personnel from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, governmental and civil society stakeholders, institutions, and humanitarian organizations.

The portal aggregates meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic data, including weather forecasts, river discharge, and exposed population, to assess hazard intensity and community impact.

Key technologies

• Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Visualize hazard impact and exposure data 
• Machine Learning:  Analyse historical data to predict potential impacts and generate scenarios.
• Early Warning Systems (EWS): Provide real-time alerts based on hazard severity and predefined thresholds.

The portal relies on impact-based models to predict the effects on communities and infrastructure. It features interactive dashboards to help disaster managers interpret data and implement pre-agreed actions. It is frequently linked to the trigger levels defined in an Early Action Protocol. Upon triggering of the IBF portal, the National Society (NS) can start the procedure to request Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) and execute early actions.

The IBF Portal enables the National Society to mitigate the impact of floods, typhoons, droughts and epidemics, by activating pre-agreed early actions – all the steps that protect people, their homes and their livelihoods before a hazard strikes based on forecasts. For rapid-onset disasters such as typhoons, early actions can include strengthening of housing, early harvesting and evacuation of people and livestock.

The early actions can be taken once a trigger model reaches a certain pre-determined threshold and the DREF funding is released. The IBF portal also provides alerts on lower magnitude hazard events that are not necessarily linked to an EAP-defined threshold. This way, the National Society can undertake early actions also for smaller events. Trigger models for different components are available to predict impact. The trigger model and early actions are centralised in the IBF Portal. The portal integrates and presents the data in both non-alert stage and alert stage, and guides the user through each step in the alert stage process.

In October 2024, the IBF Portal sentout  over 1500+ messages to stakeholders.

Uganda
In Uganda, the IBF Portal is used to provide alerts ahead of major floods. In November 2023, the portal triggered the activation of Uganda’s first EAP in anticipation of heavy rainfall and subsequent floods. Early actions focused on intervention activities pertaining to shelter, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), and disaster risk reduction. The team has also implemented the IBF Portal in Zambia, Malawi and Ethiopia.

 

“The IBF Portal helped me to identify high risk areas prone to flooding and likely affected populations. Affected communities have been able to clear drainage channels and evacuate before hazardous floods hit, reducing impact to houses and averting life loss.”

– Joel Kitutu, Project Manager at the Uganda Red Cross Society

The Philippines
In the Philippines, the IBF Portal is used to anticipate typhoons and has been activated six times since its implementation by the Philippine Red Cross. In November 2019, the portal issued a warning for super typhoon Kammuri (also known as Tisoy), sharing an automatically generated map every six hours, starting five days before landfall. The map highlighted which municipalities were likely to be the most impacted by the upcoming typhoon. When the trigger threshold was reached 72 hours before landfall, the relevant Philippine Red Cross branches were informed of the EAP activation and requested to begin the preparation and implementation of pre-identified early actions.

Zimbabwe
In Zimbabwe, agricultural activities are the primary source of income for 67% of the rural population. Agricultural productivity follows the country’s rainfall patterns, as most farming is rain-fed making it highly vulnerable to drought. The Netherlands Red Cross/510 developed an IBF trigger model for disaster managers at the Zimbabwe Red Cross Society to anticipate droughts. 510’s IBF Portal for Drought visualizes this Trigger Model and outlines clear actionable steps for a National Society. Currently, the team is also working for developing an IBF portal for droughts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Southern Africa region (Namibia, Lesotho and Mozambique).